Summary of the Economic Note - 40th edition of Milano Unica
Data processed by Confindustria Moda’s Economic Studies
ACCORDING TO CONFINDUSTRIA MODA RESEARCH CENTER ESTIMATES, IN 2024 MADE-IN-ITALY TEXTILES ARE EXPECTED TO POST EURO 7.1 BILLION IN TOTAL SALES, DOWN -7.7% ON A Y-O-Y BASIS. THE RESULT REFLECTS THE PERFORMANCE OF SALES IN BOTH DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN MARKETS, WHICH WERE DOWN -8.5% AGAINST THE PREVIOUS YEAR. HOWEVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2024, EXPORT VOLUMES DIPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY (-1.3%). IN OTHER WORDS, IN TERMS OF QUANTITY, TOTAL EXPORTS OF TEXTILES IN 2024 WERE ALMOST IN LINE WITH THE AMOUNTS RECORDED IN THE SAME PERIOD OF 2023, BUT WITH LOWER MARGINS AND PRICES. IMPORTS INSTEAD DECLINED TO A LESSER EXTENT (-5.8%) THAN EXPORTS, WITH AN IMPACT ON THE TRADE BALANCE SURPLUS, WHICH ALTHOUGH DOWN -10.7% VS 2023, REMAINED OVER EURO 2 BILLION. THE ANALYSIS OF EXPORTS BY COUNTRY IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2024 SHOWED POSITIVE RESULTS FOR CHINA (+4.8%), WHICH TOGETHER WITH HONG KONG (DOWN -0.5%), CONFIRMED ITS STANDING AS THE FIRST EXPORT MARKET WITH OVER EURO 250 MILLION IN VALUE, ESPECIALLY THANKS TO COMBED AND CARDED WOOL FABRICS, WEIGHING OVER 10% ON TOTAL EXPORTS. EXPORTS TO VIETNAM AND SRI LANKA ALSO GREW, MAKING FOR OVER 5% OF TOTAL EXPORTS AGGREGATIVELY. EXPORTS TO ALL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES SHOWED A DECLINE, STARTING WITH FRANCE (-16.2%) AND GERMANY (-22.6%), RANKING SECOND AND THIRD ON THE EXPORT LIST. EXPORTS POSTED GENERALLY NEGATIVE RESULTS ACROSS THE DIFFERENT PRODUCT CATEGORIES, FROM WOOL TO KNITS. THE ANALYSIS OF IMPORTS CONFIRMED A HIGH CONCENTRATION IN THE COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN. CHINA, TURKEY AND PAKISTAN, IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE, TOGETHER ACOUNT FOR - IN BOTH VALUE AND QUANTITY – OVER 50% OF TOTAL IMPORTS. IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2024, IMPORTS FROM CHINA WERE UP SLIGHTLY (+1.2%) WHILE SIZABLE REDUCTIONS WERE RECORDED FOR TURKEY (-6%) AND PAKISTAN (-25.3%).
According to estimates based on the current economic scenario and internal surveys by Confindustria Moda’s Economic Studies, Made-in-Italy textiles (including wool, cotton, linen, silk and knits) are expected to close 2024 with a negative sign. Total sales are expected to be down -7.7% to euro 7.1 billion.
In 2024, trade “from” and “to” Italy is also expected to drop. Exports are expected to post a -8.5% reduction on a y-o-y basis while imports are expected to be down -5.8%. Exports will probably record slightly over Euro 3,882 million (down approximately 360 million vs 2023) and imports should dip down to Euro 1,839 million.
Considering this performance for exports, the trade balance is expected to stand at Euro 2,043 million.
As for domestic demand, often represented by luxury brands, a -5.2% reduction was estimated compared to the previous twelve months.
It should be noted that in the first nine months of 2024, exports in volume recorded a more limited reduction at -1.3%.
According to the latest available ISTAT data, an analysis of exports by country with important trade relations with Italy revealed that in the January-September 2024 time span, China recorded a +4.8% increase. The “China+Hong Kong” aggregate represents the first-ranking export market with total exports from Italy of approximately 250 million, corresponding to over 10% of total exports, ahead of France, which recorded a decline of -16.2%. Germany ranked third, despite a -22.6% drop in sales.
The geographic analysis of imports, characterized by high concentration in the extra-EU universe, confirms the leadership of the first two suppliers, namely China and Turkey. In the January-September 2024 time span, imports from China grew +1.2%, ranking first and making for 27.2% of the total; Turkey came in second with an 18.5% share but posted a -6.0% reduction. Pakistan weighs 6.8% recording a negative performance of -25,3%.
Other minor partners with quotas below -6.0% reported fluctuating performances. The Czech Republic posted a -26.2% reduction, along with Spain (-16.7%), while imports from France were up double-digits (+21.5%). Japan lost ground (-8.0%) while Egypt rose +13.6%.
In addition to breaking down the results by country, it is also possible to analyze the performance of different product categories, revealing reductions across the board. In the January-September 2024 period, exports of wool fabrics fell the most: combed wool was down -20.5% and carded wool -15.2%. Pure silk followed, with -14.8%. Knits decreased by -12.6% and, last but not least, cotton fabrics declined by -5.7%, while linen recorded a more limited fall at -3.3%. Similarly, imports in the same January-September 2024 period reported negative signs across the board, except for linen, up +4.3%.
